AI Forecasts and Scenarios in Strategic Choices: Evidence, Bias and Judgement Training Course

Programme Summary

AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices is the subject of this five-day training course for executives, strategy directors and senior managers at managerial to strategic level, ending in a strategic decision dossier. Leaders now receive forecasts and scenarios produced or shaped by AI, often without a clear way to test them. The approach moves from decision types and evidence, through forecast and assumption testing and scenario use, to bias, judgement and governance, and then to a worked decision. Mars Training Centre UK delivers this programme in AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices.

The Business Case

An AI forecast looks precise, which can make it more persuasive than it deserves. Leaders who know how to question assumptions, read uncertainty and separate model output from judgement avoid both blind trust and blanket rejection. They commit capital with evidence that has been tested and record why a decision was taken.

• Forecast Error in Committed Plans: Falls as assumptions, back-tests and ranges are reviewed before approval.
• Decision Reversal Cost: Reduces as early-warning indicators trigger review of choices that no longer hold.
• Decision Accountability: Improves as evidence, bias checks and approvers are recorded for each choice.

Principles and Evidence Base

• ISO 31000: Its risk management process frames strategic decisions as choices under uncertainty in Sessions 1 and 3.
• ISO 37000: Its principles of governance guide the accountability and oversight work in Session 4.
• ISO/IEC 42001: Its AI management system requirements shape the controls on decision-support models in Session 4.

Intended Participants

• Executives who approve investments, entries and restructurings based on forecasts.
• Strategy and planning leaders who commission and present scenario work.
• Senior managers who receive AI analysis from data teams and must decide what to do with it.
• Board advisers and committee members who challenge management proposals.

The programme serves energy, financial services, healthcare, telecommunications and public-sector organisations.

Learning Outcomes

1. Participants will be able to classify strategic decisions by the role AI evidence can play in them.
2. Participants will be able to evaluate an AI forecast through its assumptions, data provenance and error measures.
3. Participants will be able to construct scenarios and signposts that compare strategic options.
4. Participants will be able to diagnose cognitive and algorithmic bias in a decision process.
5. Participants will be able to justify decision accountability and model oversight to a board or committee.
6. Participants will be able to prioritise options in a strategic decision dossier that records evidence and judgement.

Programme Structure

Day 1: AI Forecasts and Scenarios in Strategic Choices Foundations

What do AI forecasts and scenarios add to a strategic decision, and what can they not do?

• Decision Types and Where AI Evidence Fits
• Statistical, Machine Learning and Generative Forecast Types
• ISO 31000 Risk Framing of Strategic Decisions
• Decision Log and Evidence Register
• Case Review of Two Sector Decisions

Day 2: Testing Forecasts and Model Assumptions

How is an AI forecast examined before it is trusted?

• Assumption and Data Provenance Checklist
• Forecast Error and Back-Testing Measures
• Uncertainty Ranges and Confidence Reading
• Sensitivity and Stress Testing
• Model Challenge Question Set

Day 3: Scenarios and Strategic Options

How are scenarios used to compare options when the future is uncertain?

• Scenario Construction With Generative Tools
• Driver and Signpost Mapping
• Option Value and Regret Analysis
• Robustness of Options Across Scenarios
• Early-Warning Indicator Set

Day 4: Bias, Judgement and Governance

Where do human and algorithmic bias distort a decision, and who is accountable?

• Cognitive Bias Review for Forecast Users
• Algorithmic Bias and Data Gap Analysis
• Pre-Mortem and Red Team Review
• ISO 37000 Accountability and Oversight Principles
• ISO/IEC 42001 Controls for Decision-Support Models

Day 5: Applying AI Forecasts and Scenarios to a Strategic Decision

Is the decision dossier ready for approval?

• Applying the Session 1 Decision Map to a Chosen Choice
• Testing a Sample Forecast With the Session 2 Question Set
• Comparing Options With Session 3 Scenarios
• Applying Session 4 Bias and Oversight Checks
• Completing the Strategic Decision Dossier

Methodology

The programme is built around case analysis and structured exercises. Participants work with sample forecasts, scenario sets and decision cases, challenge them in small teams, and defend a recommendation before a simulated investment committee. No programming is required.

• Suggested activity: Back-testing a supplied demand forecast and judging how far to rely on it.
• Suggested activity: Comparing three options across four scenarios and ranking them by regret.
• Suggested activity: Running a pre-mortem on a recommended investment.

Capstone Output

Each participant completes a strategic decision dossier for one live or sample decision. It contains a decision map, a tested forecast summary, scenarios and signposts, a bias and oversight review, a recommendation and a record of the judgement applied. It is used to brief the approving committee and to anchor later review.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is training on AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices suitable for leaders without data skills?

Yes. Training on AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices is set at managerial to strategic level. It assumes experience of approving or challenging decisions, not statistics or programming.

Which standards do AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices rest on in this programme?

AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices rest on ISO 31000 for risk management, ISO 37000 for governance principles and ISO/IEC 42001 for AI management systems.

How is the dossier from AI forecasts and scenarios in strategic choices training used at work?

You use the dossier to brief the approving committee, show how evidence was tested and set review triggers. It also gives a consistent record to compare later decisions.